| Gold at Dhanteras 10 years of Indian festive prices, and what they could mean for your purchase this year |
Gold has cost more on Dhanteras than a year earlier in 8 of the last 10 years. The only dips came in 2017 (down 1.0%) and 2021 (down 6.6%). This year starts from an unusual place: gold hit a record in January, fell more than 20% in dollar terms by July, rebounded in August, and has slipped again since. Dhanteras 2026 falls on Friday, 6 November.
8 of 10
Dhanteras days (2016 to 2025) when gold cost more than a year earlier
4.4x
Rise from Dhanteras 2016 (Rs 29,932) to Dhanteras 2025 (about Rs 1,30,860)
Rs 1,48,260
24K gold per 10 grams on 14 Oct 2026, about 19% below the 29 Jan record
Price of 24K gold on Dhanteras day, per 10 grams (Rs)
Prices are for 24-carat gold per 10 grams, before GST and making charges, unless stated. Rs means rupees. * See notes on page 2.
The 10-year scoreboard
Every Dhanteras since 2016, side by side.
| Year | Date | Price per 10 g | Change vs previous Dhanteras |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 28 Oct | Rs 29,932 | +16.7% |
| 2017 | 17 Oct | Rs 29,635 | −1.0% |
| 2018 | 5 Nov | Rs 32,690* | +6.4%* |
| 2019 | 25 Oct | Rs 38,273 | +20.0%* |
| 2020 | 13 Nov | Rs 51,043 | +33.4% |
| 2021 | 2 Nov | Rs 47,674 | −6.6% |
| 2022 | 22 Oct | Rs 50,625 | +6.2% |
| 2023 | 10 Nov | Rs 60,746 | +20.0% |
| 2024 | 29 Oct | Rs 79,143 | +30.3% |
| 2025 | 18 Oct | Rs 1,30,860* | +65%* |
How much gold changed from one Dhanteras to the next
Notes on the numbers. 2016, 2017 and 2019 to 2024 prices are 24K reference rates on Dhanteras day ( GoldPriceIndia ). *2018 is the Delhi price reported by PTI on 5 Nov 2018; its change is the 6%-plus PTI reported against 2017. *2019 change compares PTI Delhi prices for 2018 (Rs 32,690) and 2019 (Rs 39,240). *2025 is the 24K retail rate on 18 Oct 2025; its change is the tax-inclusive Delhi comparison PTI reported (Rs 1,34,800 against Rs 81,400). City and benchmark prices differ by a few percent, so read each figure as a close guide, not an exact quote.
Year by year
One short report for each Dhanteras, from 2016 to 2025.
2016
Friday, 28 Oct
Gold started the run with a strong year, up 16.7% from Rs 25,648 on Dhanteras 2015.
The last two weeks were calm: Rs 29,645 on 12 October, then Rs 29,932 (+1.0%).
2017
Tuesday, 17 Oct
A flat year. Gold ended slightly below 2016, so a buyer from the previous Dhanteras was almost exactly where they started.
Prices barely moved: Rs 29,797 on 12 October, Rs 29,635 on Dhanteras (-0.5%).
2018
Monday, 5 Nov
Delhi gold was up Rs 1,980, or over 6%, from the previous Dhanteras and near six-year highs, PTI reported.
With prices this high, buying was mostly small, token purchases.
2019
Friday, 25 Oct
Gold jumped about 20% on PTI’s Delhi prices. On the day itself, an HDFC Securities analyst credited safe-haven buying on Brexit worries and weak US data.
The jump had a cost. The India Bullion and Jewellers Association said Dhanteras sales were around 30 tonnes, nearly 25% below normal, because prices had rallied. After the festival, dealers offered discounts of up to $6 an ounce.
2020
Friday, 13 Nov
Gold rose by a third in a year when demand felt sharply. The World Gold Council said India’s demand for the year so far was 252 tonnes, against 496 tonnes a year earlier.
Business Standard noted 2020 could turn out the weakest year for Indian gold demand since 1995 if trends held. Price up, buying down.
2021
Tuesday, 2 Nov
The only real fall in ten years. Gold cost 6.6% less than on Dhanteras 2020.
It left anyone who bought at the 2020 price behind, and they were still behind a year later (see insight 1).
2022
Saturday, 22 Oct
A modest recovery, yet the price was still 0.8% below Dhanteras 2020.
Delhi gold was Rs 50,139 before taxes that day, according to Outlook Business.
2023
Friday, 10 Nov
A 20% rise. Gold had touched about Rs 63,000 on 28 October, then eased by Rs 800 to Rs 1,500, which brought buyers back on Dhanteras, PTI reported.
An Axis Securities analyst noted the one-year gain was almost 20%, comfortably ahead of the Nifty 50.
2024
Tuesday, 29 Oct
Gold rose 30.3% even after the government cut import duty from 15% to 6% on 23 July 2024, which pulled domestic prices down.
The cut revived jewellery demand: the World Gold Council put India’s July to September jewellery demand at 117.6 tonnes, the strongest third quarter since 2015, and said smuggling had almost vanished. Even so, industry estimates expected Dhanteras volumes to fall 12% to 15% at record prices.
2025
Saturday, 18 Oct
Gold rose about 65% in a year (Delhi, taxes included: Rs 1,34,800 against Rs 81,400). World gold touched a record $4,298.73 an ounce on 16 October, 30% above its 1 August low.
Price won over volume. The jewellers’ council (GJC) expected sales value up 40% to 45% but volumes down 10% to 15%. Gold ETF inflows in September were Rs 8,363 crore, up 282% from August. By 29 October, the price had slipped about 7%.
Six things hiding in the numbers
Patterns that only show up when you line the years up side by side.
The Dhanteras 2020 trap
Buy at the Dhanteras 2020 price (Rs 51,043) and you spent the next two Dhanteras days behind: Rs 47,674 in 2021, Rs 50,625 in 2022. The first clear profit arrived in 2023, three years later, at Rs 60,746.
Why it matters
A rising decade can still hide a three-year wait. The price you pay on the festival day matters as much as the festival itself.
Spring gold vs festival gold
In six of the seven years we could compare cleanly, gold on Dhanteras cost more than on Akshaya Tritiya, the spring buying day, earlier that year. The gap ran from +0.2% to +38.4%. The one exception was 2022 (-0.7%).
2018, 2021 and 2023 are left out because the source dates or price bases did not match. Hatched bar: Akshaya Tritiya 2026 (19 April, Rs 1,54,605) to 14 October 2026 (Rs 1,48,260).
What nobody is talking about
Dhanteras has usually been the pricier of the two festivals. This year the spring buyer is the one who paid more, at least so far.
The mid-October drift
From mid-October to Dhanteras, the price rose in six of nine years and fell in three. Every fall was under 1%. The rises ran up to about 7%.
Change from about 12 October to Dhanteras ( GoldPriceIndia ). 2018 is left out for lack of a clean mid-October price. *2025 is approximate: retail rates from 10 Oct (Rs 1,22,290) to 18 Oct (Rs 1,30,860), taken from different sources.
A word of caution
The biggest rises (2023 to 2025) came in strong up-trend years. In 2026 the trend has been the opposite, so treat this as history, not a promise.
The festival-week slide of 2025
Gold peaked around Dhanteras and Diwali 2025, then gave ground fast. From about Rs 1,30,860 on 18 October it fell to Rs 1,21,580 by 29 October, down about 7%. One day alone, 21 to 22 October, took off about 3.6%.
Approximate daily 24K retail rates per 10 grams, mostly from 5paisa, with 10 Oct (Outlook Money), 17 Oct (Kotak Securities) and 18 Oct (NewsX).
The hidden price tag
The screen price is not the whole story. At festival peaks, dealers can charge a premium over the official rate. BullionVault reported India’s premium in October 2025 was its strongest stretch since late 2020, and it had flipped to a small discount by 31 October.
Higher price, fewer grams
Indians rarely skip the festival. They buy fewer grams. In each of the four years where we found volume estimates, a big price jump came with lower volumes.
| Year | Price change | What happened to the quantity bought |
|---|---|---|
| 2019 | +20% | Dhanteras sales about 30 tonnes, nearly 25% below normal (IBJA) |
| 2020 | +33% | Demand for the year so far: 252 tonnes vs 496 tonnes a year earlier (WGC) |
| 2024 | +30% | Dhanteras volumes expected to fall 12% to 15% (industry estimates) |
| 2025 | +65% | Value expected up 40% to 45%, volume down 10% to 15% (GJC) |
Why it matters
Fewer grams for the same budget is the real cost of a price jump. For 2025, the World Gold Council expected a surge in lighter 9 to 18 carat jewellery.
Three dials set your price
The gold price in India is built from three things: the world gold price, the rupee, and import duty. When the rupee weakens, the same world price costs more rupees. On 23 July 2024 the government cut import duty from 15% to 6%. The World Gold Council said that pulled domestic prices down and revived demand.
What nobody is talking about
When you read “gold fell”, check which dial moved: the world price, the rupee or the duty. Each one changes what you pay in rupees.
Where 2026 stands
The record, the fall, and what the experts say now.
Gold touched a record $5,594.82 an ounce on 29 January 2026. By 9 July it was around $4,100, more than 20% lower, Reuters reported. HSBC blamed a more hawkish US Federal Reserve and a stronger dollar, which pushed investors to sell gold.
In rupees, that is about Rs 1.83 lakh at the peak and Rs 1,48,260 on 14 October. Since the 25 August high of Rs 1,58,995, the price is down about 7%.
24K gold per 10 grams (Rs): the 2026 path
Points are not equally spaced in time. Sources: Forbes India (29 Jan, approximate), Sahi (month-end), Groww (14 Oct).
What the experts say
| Who | When | View |
|---|---|---|
| HSBC | 9 Jul | Cut its 2026 average to $4,560 an ounce. Sees $3,800 to $4,700 for the rest of 2026, ending at $4,750. Says Iran-related falls should not last long. |
| Goldman Sachs | Jul | Cut its year-end 2026 target to $4,900 from $5,400, expecting rates to stay higher for longer. |
| J.P. Morgan | Mid-year | Expected gold to average $6,000 in the last quarter of 2026. Main risk it named: a Fed hiking cycle. Gold was near $4,300 in late September. |
| LKP Securities | Late Sep | Expects Rs 1,48,000 to Rs 1,52,500 in the near term. Notes markets are pricing in another US rate hike in October. |
| Elara | Late Sep | Expects gold to stay in a range for the next two to three quarters, with long-term upside intact. A calmer Middle East could help. |
Why forecasts deserve caution
HSBC’s year-end 2026 view was $3,800 in October 2025, $4,450 in January 2026 and $4,750 in July 2026.
Even the experts keep changing their minds.
What it could mean for your Dhanteras
Nobody knows where gold will be on 6 November. Here are three ways the next three weeks could go.
Gold stays in today’s range (about Rs 1.48 to 1.52 lakh)
What would need to happen: No big surprises from the US Federal Reserve, the dollar or the Middle East. This is the range LKP Securities expects in the near term.
What it would mean: Buying now or on Dhanteras costs about the same, so the day matters less than the making charge, the purity and the dealer premium.
Gold rebounds
What would need to happen: Rate-hike worries fade, or Middle East tensions ease, which Elara sees as supportive. HSBC also expects some of this year’s heavy ETF outflows to reverse.
What it would mean: Early buyers come out ahead. In six of the last nine years, gold rose between mid-October and Dhanteras.
Gold slips further
What would need to happen: A stronger dollar or another US rate hike, the same forces HSBC blamed for the fall since January.
What it would mean: Early buyers pay more than late ones. The 2020 trap shows a high festival price can take years to recover.
Ideas buyers use when the path is unclear
Split the purchase. Buying in two or three smaller parts between now and Dhanteras means no single day decides your price. Starting small is a common way to do it.
Compare the total cost, not the gold price. Making charges typically run 8% to 25% on jewellery and 3% to 11% on coins and bars, according to Outlook Money, so they can outweigh a few days of price movement.
Ask about the premium or discount. Festival demand can add a premium to the official rate, and after festivals a discount can appear.
Think in rupees, not grams. Decide what you are comfortable spending, and accept that the grams you get will vary with the price.
These are common approaches, not recommendations.
Disclaimer and sources
Disclaimer
This report is for general information and education only. It is not investment, tax or legal advice, and it does not recommend buying or selling any asset. Gold prices can rise or fall, and past festival-season performance does not guarantee future results. Prices come from third-party sources and differ by city, seller, purity and time of day, so the rate you are quoted may differ from the figures here. Forecasts and expert views are the opinions of the named firms when they were published and may have changed since. Making charges, taxes and premiums are not included unless stated. Please verify current prices and consult a SEBI-registered investment adviser before making any financial decision.
Sources used
Every figure in this report comes from the sources below.
| Source | Used for | Website |
|---|---|---|
| GoldPriceIndia | Dhanteras, Diwali, Akshaya Tritiya and 12 October price history | goldpriceindia.com |
| Business Standard / PTI | Dhanteras reports for 2018 and 2019; 2020 decade-return article; 17 Oct 2025 analyst note | business-standard.com |
| Outlook Business | Dhanteras 2023 report; World Gold Council Q3 2024 duty-cut data | outlookbusiness.com |
| Indian Jeweller (Reuters) | 2019 Dhanteras sales and post-festival discounts | indianjeweller.in |
| Business Today | Dhanteras 2024 sales estimates and import-duty cut | businesstoday.in |
| ETV Bharat (PTI) | Dhanteras 2025 prices and jeweller expectations | etvbharat.com |
| NewsX; Kotak Securities | 18 Oct and 17 Oct 2025 gold rates | newsx.com; kotaksecurities.com |
| 5paisa | Daily rates in October 2025; IBJA fixing on 14 Oct 2026 | 5paisa.com |
| Outlook Money | 10 Oct 2025 price, ETF inflows and making charges | outlookmoney.com |
| BullionVault | Premiums and discounts in India, late October 2025; HSBC view | bullionvault.com |
| Sahi | 2026 month-by-month prices, Dhanteras 2026 date and the rupee effect | sahi.com |
| Forbes India | Gold price on 29 January 2026 | forbesindia.com |
| Groww | Gold price on 14 October 2026 | groww.in |
| Reuters via Kitco; Yahoo Finance | HSBC forecast changes (January and July 2026) | kitco.com; finance.yahoo.com |
| De Vere Group | Goldman Sachs target cut | devere-group.com |
| J.P. Morgan Global Research | Gold price forecast | jpmorganchase.com |
| TradingView News (LKP, Elara) | Late-September range and outlook | tradingview.com |
Frequently Asked Questions
1. Is gold a good buy on Dhanteras 2026?
Gold has risen on Dhanteras in 8 of the last 10 years, but 2026 has been volatile. On 14 October 2026 the 24K rate was Rs 1,48,260 per 10g, about 19% below the January record. Consult a SEBI-registered investment adviser before making a financial decision.
2. What was the gold price on Dhanteras 2025?
About Rs 1,30,860 per 10g (24K retail rate on 18 October 2025).
3. Why did gold fall in 2026?
According to HSBC, a more hawkish US Federal Reserve and a stronger dollar pushed investors to sell gold after the January record.
4. Should I buy gold now or wait for Dhanteras?
No single day is reliably better. Many buyers split their purchase across several dates to avoid relying on one price.
